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Week 11 College Football Premium Best Bets

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89-47 ATS for 65% winning bets over the last three College Football seasons documented by Sports Capping.
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64-29 (69%) with 10-UNIT MAX Bets across all sports and spanning more than four years of action.

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College Football Week 11 Previews, Predictions, and Best Bets

In Week 10 action, underdogs went 19-43 straight-up (SU) and 33-27-2 against-the-spread (ATS) for 55% winning bets including a 29-31-2 Over-Under result. Ranked home teams went 10-1 SU, 6-4-1 ATS for 60%, and 7-3-1 Over for 70% in Week 10. For the 2023 season, double-digit home favorites taking on a conference foe have produced a 78-9 SU mark but have gone a money-burning 31-53-3 ATS for just 37% winning bets. So, here is an area that the market has overvalued these home favorites and this trend is expected to continue the remainder of the regular season.

Over the past 11 seasons, fading double-digit home favorites taking on conference foes has been profitable in nine seasons with only the 2018 and 2019 seasons seeing these favorites produce profits. The current ATS record at 37% ATS is the lowest over the past 11 seasons and will be the fourth consecutive season that fading these favorites has been profitable. The following table displays every conference matchup with a double-digit home favorite in Week 11. 

College Football Betting Algorithm

The following betting algorithm has produced a highly profitable 49-15 SU (77%) wins and 43-18-3 ATS for 71% winning bets since 2015. The requirements are:

·      Bet on home teams from Week 7 on to the end of the regular season.

·      Home team is averaging 190 to 230 rushing yards per game.

·      Home team allowed less than 100 rushing yards.

·      The guest is averaging 140 to 190 rushing yards per game.

If the total in these games is priced between 60 and 70 points, these home teams have gone 11-4 SU (73%) and 12-3 ATS for 80% winning bets since 2015. This algorithm targets a bet on situation with the Kansas Jayhawks when they host the Texas Tech Red Raiders in a Big-12 Conference showdown. 

The total for this game is currently priced at 61.5 points and with Kansas priced as a 4.5-point home favorite. Kansas ranks 17th nationally averaging 192 rushing yards per game and Texas Tech ranks 49th averaging 167 rushing yards per game satisfying the algorithm’s requirements.

Be sure to look for the next editions of the Predictive Playbooks College and Pro NFL Football articles for more valuable money-making betting strategies each week. Thanks for reading and please send comments to my e-mail address at johnryansports@gmail.com