College football Expert Picks for Week 11

Ranked Underdogs to Watch in Week 11 Based on the Models

In Week 11 action there are two marquee matchups involving ranked teams with the home team priced as the underdog. Starting at Noon EST, No. 11 Penn State (8-1, 5-1 Big Ten) will host No. 2 Michigan (9-0, 6-0 Big Ten) at Beaver Stadium in University Park, PA. Penn State is currently priced as a 4.5-point underdog and with a total of 43.5 points. 

The second conference matchup features the No. 12 Missouri Tigers (7-2, 3-2 SEC) playing host to the No. 17 Tennessee Volunteers (7-2, 3-2 SEC) at Memorial Stadium with a scheduled start time at 3:30 PM EST. Despite being the higher-ranked team in the latest AP poll, Missouri finds themselves priced as a 1.5-point underdog and with a posted total of 58.5 points. 

With the additions of many PAC-12 programs that are entering the Big Ten Conference next season, this will be the last time that Penn State, Michigan, and Ohio State play their annual round-robin tournament that has determined many Big Ten Championship and has had major National Championship implications. The Big Ten has just three teams in the most recent AP polls, but all three of them are from the East Division of the Big Ten. 

In the first game of the three-game round-robin, Penn State went to Ohio State as a 4-point underdog and lost 20-12 in a defensive battle. The third and final game will take place in Week 13 when Michigan will host Ohio State. If Penn State gets the win over Michigan this week and then Michigan defeats Ohio State in Week 13 all three teams will be tied with one loss each in conference and overall play. 

The Big Ten Tiebreakers

The Big Ten Conference has a rather complex decision tree in place for these types of tie-breaker situations and it is possible that Penn State could be the East Division Champion and play in the Big Ten Championship game if all three teams end the regular season with one loss each in conference play. All three teams would reach the fifth tiebreaker, which is the best cumulative record of the non-divisional conference opponents each team played. 

Penn State has played West Division-leading Iowa (7-2, 4-2 Big Ten), Illinois (4-5, 2-4 Big Ten), and Northwestern (4-5,2-4 Big Ten) in the West Division. So, their cumulative conference record is 8-10. Ohio State has played Purdue (2-7, 1-5 Big Ten), Wisconsin (5-4, 3-3 Big Ten), and has date with Minnesota (5-4, 3-3 Big Ten) in Week 12. It is unlikely that Ohio State will lose to Minnesota, which would make their record a cumulative 7-10 on the season. Michigan has played Nebraska (5-4, 3-3 Big Ten), Minnesota (5-4, 3-3 Big Ten), and Purdue (2-7, 1-5 Big Ten). Right now, Penn State has a one-game lead in this tiebreaker with three weeks remaining that feature Big Ten West Division teams facing each other and those results are as important as it is for Penn State to defeat Michigan on Saturday.

I do like Penn State to defeat Michigan. The betting line in early action has seen a large wave of betting focused on Michigan, which has moved the line a bit higher and the market may get to 6 or even 6.5 points prior to the kickoff. 

Penn State sophomore and 5-Star recruit quarterback Drew Allar is having a great season having completed 63% of his pass attempts for 1,895 yards including 20 touchdowns and just one interception. The ground attack is one of the best behind arguably the best offensive line in the nation. Running backs Kaytron Allen has gained 573 yards and has scored four rushing TDs while teammate Nichols Singleton has gained 480 yards and scored a team-high seven rushing TDs. 

This running back tandem was the first pair of true freshmen to each gain 700 or more rushing yards in Big Ten Conference history. Singleton became the third freshman to gain over 1,000 rushing yards joining current New Giants running back Saquon Barkley (2015) and D.J. Dozier (1983).

An 88% ATS Betting Algorithm Supporting Penn State

Supporting this best bet opportunity is a highly profitable betting algorithm that has amassed a 26-7 ATS record good for 79% winning bets over the past five seasons. The requirements are simply to bet on home underdogs between 3.5 and 9.5 points that are coming off a dominant game in which they outgained that foe by at least 175 total yards. And if our home dog is facing a ranked foe they have gone to a 9-7 SU record and a 14-2 ATS mark good for 88% winning bets over the past five seasons.